Description:New HIV infections generally decreased from 2000 to 2023, with clear trend shifts identified in 2004, 2008, 2011, and 2020. The corresponding APCs were -3.82% (2000–2004), -9.61% (2004–2008), -8.21% (2008–2011), -3.24% (2011–2020), and -7.73% (2020–2023), with the sharpest decline occurring between 2004 and 2008. Meanwhile, AIDS-related deaths revealed two major trend shifts, occurring in 2006 and 2021. The APCs for these periods were -2.56% (2000–2006), -8.75% (2006–2021), and -3.93% (2021–2023), with the most significant sustained drop happening between 2006 and 2021. Broadly, new HIV infections demonstrated more frequent temporal variations than AIDS-related mortality. , Claims:1. Integrated dual-outcome HIV trend assessment: The proposed methodology provides a unified analytical framework for simultaneously examining long-term temporal patterns in new HIV infections and AIDS-related mortality, rather than evaluating either epidemiological indicator in isolation..
2. Comparative breakpoint-based analysis: The framework identifies and compares changes in the temporal trajectories of the two HIV indicators, enabling assessment of whether changes in infection and mortality patterns occur at similar or different time points.
3. Segment-specific quantitative trend characterization: The methodology uses Annual Percent Change (APC) estimates across identified temporal segments to quantify variations in the magnitude and direction of HIV epidemiological trends over time.
4. Combined statistical and public-health interpretation framework: Identified temporal changes are interpreted alongside major HIV-control and public-health developments while explicitly treating such relationships as temporal associations rather than causal effects, thereby reducing the risk of inappropriate causal interpretation.
5. Long-term national HIV surveillance framework: The approach integrates national-level longitudinal HIV indicators covering 2000–2023 from the UNAIDS Data Portal into a structured framework for monitoring changes in both transmission-related and mortality-related outcomes. Your Methods confirm this data source and study period.
6. Differential trajectory characterization: Application of the framework demonstrated its ability to distinguish different temporal structures between epidemiological outcomes; in your study, new HIV infections showed four identified joinpoints whereas AIDS-related mortality showed two, allowing the trajectories to be compared quantitatively.