We claim:
[Claim 1]
A method for monitoring transmission in a wireless network comprising a radio access infrastructure and wireless devices, the method comprising:
generate an estimated number of wireless devices according to a predetermined profile of number of wireless devices;
generate an estimated trajectory of each of the estimated number of wireless devices according to a predetermined profile of trajectories;
for each wireless device of the estimated number of wireless devices, determine an estimated distribution of the probabilities of radio transmission error during a time window using the estimated trajectory of the wireless device; and
determine an estimate of a figure of merit of the wireless network based on the respective estimated distributions of the probabilities of radio transmission error during the time window for the wireless devices.
[Claim 2]
The method according to claim 1, wherein the figure of merit measures a probability of occurrence of a radio transmission error in the wireless network during the time window.
[Claim 3]
The method according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the length of the time window is between 0.5 second and 2 seconds.
[Claim 4]
The method according to any of the preceding claims, wherein the determining an estimate of a figure of merit of the wireless network comprises:
generate an estimated probability of radio transmission error during the time window according to the estimated distribution of the probabilities of radio transmission error during the time window; and

execute a resource allocation algorithm used to allocate resources in the wireless network on the generated estimated probability of radio transmission error during the time window.
[Claim 5]
The method according to any of the preceding claims, further comprising: determining an estimate of a distribution of the figure of merit by iterating the method of claim 1.
[Claim 6]
The method according to any of the preceding claims, wherein the determining the estimate of a number of wireless devices is based on an estimate of a probability density function model of the number of wireless devices.
[Claim 7]
The method according to any of the preceding claims, wherein the determining the respective estimates of trajectory is based on an estimate joint probability density of the position and speed of each of the wireless devices.
[Claim 8]
The method according to any of claims 1 to 6, where the determining the respective estimates of trajectory is based on a profile of trajectories according to which the location of each mobile unit remains the same over the time window.
[Claim 9]
The method according to claim 5, wherein the wireless network is comprised in a Communication Based Train Control, CBTC, system, and the wireless devices are onboard trains, the method further comprising: determining an estimate probability of train stop distribution based on the estimate of a distribution of the figure of merit, wherein a train stop is triggered for an occurrence of a radio transmission error in the wireless network during the time window.
[Claim 10]
The method according to claim 9, further comprising: determining an estimate probability distribution of an expected time to the next train stop, computing a target

probability of train stop value using the estimate probability distribution of an expected time to the next train stop, and generating an alert responsive to the target probability of train stop value being beyond a predefined threshold value.
[Claim 11]
The method according to claim 9, further comprising: determining an estimate probability distribution of an expected time to the next train stop, computing a target probability of train stop value using the estimate probability distribution of an expected time to the next train stop, and determining a critical number of trains for which a probability of having a train stop probability equal to the target probability of train stop value is beyond a predefined threshold value.
[Claim 12]
A network node in a wireless network comprising a processor, a memory, operatively coupled to the processor, wherein the network node is configured to perform a method for monitoring transmission according to any of claims 1 to 11.
[Claim 13]
A non-transitory computer-readable medium encoded with executable instructions which, when executed, causes a network node comprising a processor operatively coupled with a memory, to perform a method for monitoring transmission according to any of claims 1 to 11.
[Claim 14]
A computer program product comprising computer program code tangibly embodied in a computer readable medium, said computer program code comprising instructions to, when provided to a computer system and executed, cause said computer to perform a method for monitoring transmission according to any of claims 1 to 11.
[Claim 15]
A data set representing, for example through compression or encoding, a computer program according to claim 14.