[Description]
[Title of Invention]
Method for interchanging resources by cooperation between
different entities
[5 Technical Field]
[0001]
The present invention relates to methods for system
cooperation between a plurality of business entities.
Particularly, the present invention relates to methods for
10 continuously providing services through resource interchange
by cooperation between business operators in relation to the
provision of infrastructure services such as electric power,
water, and railways.
[Background Art]
15 [0002]
In infrastructure services such as electric power, water,
and railroads, the prediction of demand therefor and the
preparation of a supply meeting the demand allow for stable
provision of infrastructure services. For example, in electric
20 power supply, an electric power operator predicts demand by
consumers in a service area, and generates an amount of electric
power that can meet the demand, so as to provide a stable power
supply service. In a system for implementing this, attributes
and past behavior of service consumers and other service
25 providers are stored, a future demand is predicted from those
3
pieces of information, and a supply commensurate with the demand
is determined. For example, in an electric power supply service,
an electric power operator collects consumer information such
as electric power consumption histories and attributes of the
5 consumers and stores them in a database, and predicts usage
behavior of the consumers using those pieces of information.
When usage behavior is predicted, usage histories under
conditions close to current conditions such as a day of the week
and a climate are extracted from past electric power usage
10 histories of the consumers, and for consumers without past
electric power usage histories, histories of consumers having
similar characteristics are used to predict usage behavior.
[0003]
With a recent increase in environmental awareness, it has
15 been required to reduce loads on the environment by not only
preparing a supply commensurate with a predicted demand but also
effectively using facilities of consumers and other service
providers by cooperation therebetween while maintaining a
balance between demand and supply. In particular, in an electric
20 power supply service, as smart grids and dispersed power sources
have become widely used, it is required to keep electric power
demand and supply without increasing the amount of power
generation by photovoltaic generators and storage batteries held
by consumers and further by restraint of electric power usage
25 (power saving) by consumers. Thus, in addition to the prediction
4
of usage behavior, it is also required to predict supply behavior
such as saving power and use of dispersed electric power sources.
When an infrastructure service is provided in cooperation
with consumers and other service providers like this, a request
for restraint of infrastructure usage or an increase in 5 supply
is made to the consumers and the service providers, and the
consumers and the service providers receiving the request
determine acceptance/refusal of the request in accordance with
their respective purposes. To realize a high-precision demand
10 and supply adjustment, it is necessary to determine a method
of cooperation with consumers and other service providers while
evaluating the probabilities of acceptance/refusal in the
cooperation as described above.
[0004]
15 For example, PTL 1 is a method for solving a power shortage
by interchanging electric power between a plurality of power
generation operators, in which for a business operator being
short of electric power, a business operator that has a surplus
of electric power and can provide electric power is selected
20 from information on demand and supply plans individually created
by the respective business operators, and the possible amount
of electric power interchange is determined.
[0005]
The description written in PTL 1 allows for creation of
25 an interchange plan in a situation where there are a plurality
5
of business operators that need to receive the provision of power
and a plurality of business operators that can provide power.
[Citation List]
[Patent Literature]
[00065 ]
[PTL 1] JP 2005-45887
[Summary of Invention]
[Technical Problem]
[0007]
10 However, in the technology described in PTL 1, an
interchange plan is made based on a predetermined stationary
demand and supply plan. It is a precondition that the
predetermined demand and supply plan does not change greatly,
provision of power from business operators planned to have
15 surpluses is possible, and provision of power from business
operators planned to have no surpluses is impossible.
[0008]
Thus, it is difficult to be applied to the case where the
demand and supply situation varies greatly, depending on time
20 and environment, or the case where the plan itself is changed
in response to a request from a business operator short of supply
to implement interchange. For example, in a community energy
management system (CEMS), when a plurality of factories in an
area aim to maintain an electric power demand-supply balance
25 in the area in cooperation, using private power generators,
6
photovoltaic generators, and storage batteries held by the
factories, a demand and supply plan and whether interchange is
possible or not depend on the production statuses of the factories
at different times and environmental conditions such as weather,
so that the demand and supply plan is not necessarily fixed5 .
Therefore, it is difficult to deal with the case where the
demand-supply balance breaks down in an emergency such as an
accident. Further, it is difficult for a request-receiving
business operator to change the demand and supply plan according
10 to the situation of the moment in response to a request for
interchange to achieve a demand and supply adjustment.
[0009]
As described above, in the technology described in PTL
1, it is difficult to deal with the case where a demand and supply
15 plan changes according to the situation, and also the case where
a demand and supply plan is changed through request-determination
negotiations to implement interchange.
[0010]
An object of the present invention is to determine a request
20 destination and an interchange method for achieving a control
objective with high precision in a resource interchange process
in which business operators receiving a resource interchange
request each determine acceptance/refusal of the request, and
the amount of restraint and whether it is possible or not are
25 determined through negotiations. In particular, it is an object
7
of the present invention to estimate criteria for determining
interchange of different business operators and a possible
interchange method.
[Solution to Problem]
[00115 ]
To solve the above problems, in the present invention,
when a resource shortage is detected in its own system, a business
entity that provides resources to a system of a different business
entity is searched for. Here, behavioral model information that
10 is information on predicted behavior of other business entities
has been prepared, so that by searching the information, it is
determined to which business entity a request for resource
interchange should be issued. A request for resource
interchange is made to a business entity determined in this manner,
15 thereby implementing resource interchange.
[Advantageous Effects of Invention]
[0012]
According to the present invention, when the supply of
an infrastructure service is maintained through resource
20 interchange between a plurality of business operators, it becomes
possible to predict each business operator’s attitude of
acceptance/refusal toward interchange.
[Brief Description of Drawings]
[0013]
25 [Fig. 1] Fig. 1 is a typical hardware configuration diagram
8
according to the present invention.
[Fig. 2] Fig. 2 is a typical software configuration diagram
according to the present invention.
[Fig. 3] Fig. 3 is an example of a process flow (process on the
request-5 originating side) of a resource interchange method
according to the present invention.
[Fig. 4] Fig. 4 is an example of a process flow (process on the
request destination side) of a resource interchange method
according to the present invention.
10 [Fig. 5] Fig. 5 is an example of a detailed process flow of an
interchange request method according to the present invention.
[Fig. 6] Fig. 6 is an example of a detailed process flow of a
method of estimating an interchange behavioral model according
to the present invention.
15 [Fig. 7] Fig. 7 is an example of a detailed process flow of an
interchange time limit calculation method according to the
present invention.
[Fig. 8] Fig. 8 is an example of a table showing a resource
utilization plan according to the present invention.
20 [Fig. 9] Fig. 9 is an example of a table showing an interchange
behavioral model according to the present invention.
[Fig. 10] Fig. 10 is a conceptual diagram illustrating electric
power interchange by a resource interchange method according
to the present invention.
25 [Fig. 11] Fig. 11 is a conceptual diagram illustrating electric
9
power interchange by a resource interchange method according
to the present invention.
[Fig. 12] Fig. 12 is a conceptual diagram illustrating
transportation capacity interchange by a resource interchange
method according to the present invention5 .
[Fig. 13] Fig. 13 is an example of an interchange method list
table.
[Description of Embodiments]
[0014]
10 [Example 1]
First, an embodiment will be described in outline.
[0015]

In this embodiment, in a plurality of factories having
15 power supply equipment such as a private power generator, a
photovoltaic generator, or a storage battery, and power consuming
equipment such as a production facility or office equipment,
when the amount of electric power usage reaches a certain
reference value, for example, the maximum amount of electric
20 power usage contracted in advance with an electric power operator,
electric power demand and supply is adjusted in a group of a
plurality of business operators by providing electric power to
a different business operator capable of electric power
interchange through an increase in electric power supply and
25 a reduction in electric power usage.
10
[0016]
Fig. 10 is a conceptual diagram illustrating an electric
power demand and supply adjustment that is an example of the
embodiment in the present invention. Between business
operators 1002, 1003, and 1004 sharing an electric power 5 supply
infrastructure 1010 such as a low-voltage distribution line or
a private network, a certain business operator (1002), when
detecting an electric power shortage, requests another business
operator 1003 via a communication channel 1005 for power
10 interchange by a reduction in electric power usage or electric
power supply from electric power equipment such as a dispersed
power source in an attempt to solve the electric power shortage.
At that time, the business operator 1002, the requestor, predicts
the behavior of the other business operators 1003 and 1004 toward
15 the power interchange request, and issues a request
preferentially to a business operator with a higher probability
of accepting the request to securely receive electric power
supply. However, it is difficult to determine in advance whether
the business operator 1003 receiving the request can change a
20 normal operation plan or an equipment usage plan to execute
electric power interchange in response to the request for
electric power interchange. It is thus necessary to predict
the probability of changing the plan from a past history or a
request negotiation process.
25 [0017]
11
More specifically, resource interchange is implemented
as follows.
[0018]
In this example, a supply plan and a usage plan under normal
conditions for resources to be provided in an 5 infrastructure
service, for example, electric power or transportation capacity,
are shared between a plurality of business entities such as
between an infrastructure service provider and consumers, or
between consumers, or between infrastructure service providers.
10 When a shortage of the resources occurs, a business entity that
can accept interchange by increasing supply or restraining usage
is extracted from the supply plan and the usage plan. An
interchange request is transmitted to the business entity. The
business entity receiving the interchange request determines
15 whether to accept interchange by changing the usage plan or the
supply plan based on the current operation status, and responds
to the service provider, the requestor.
[0019]
To create the interchange request, the acceptance
20 probability of the request for an increase or decrease of resource
usage/supply, or a change in the start or finish time of resource
usage/supply, or a change in the time point of the maximum resource
usage/supply, based on the shared supply plan and usage plan
of the business entities, and the certainty factor indicating
25 the certainty of the acceptance probability are recorded. Under
12
a supply shortage, among interchange methods for solving supply
shortage, an interchange method with a higher acceptance
probability and a higher certainty factor is requested to solve
the supply shortage.
5 [0020]
On the other hand, since the acceptance probability with
respect to the request varies depending on the operation status
and environment of the business entity receiving the request
and cannot be shared in advance, the request-originating service
10 provider predicts the acceptance probability, and calculates
the certainty of the prediction as the certainty factor and holds
it. In order to calculate the acceptance probability and the
certainty factor, the service provider calculates a time limit
at which a demand and supply adjustment by interchange between
15 the plurality of business entities will become impossible. When
time until the time limit is equal to or longer than a certain
threshold, an interchange method with a low certainty factor
among interchange methods that allow for demand and supply
adjustment is selected, and a request therefor is issued. In
20 accordance with a response from the business entity receiving
the request, the acceptance rate is updated, and also the
certainty factor is increased. When time until the time limit
is equal to or shorter than a certain threshold, an interchange
method with a high acceptance probability and a high certainty
25 factor among interchange methods that allow for demand and supply
13
adjustment is selected, and a request therefor is issued. For
an interchange method of a business operator that has not been
requested for a certain period of time, the certainty factor
is decreased. Thus, when the period of time during which the
interchange allows for a demand and supply adjustment is 5 long,
acceptability of interchange by changing a plan by each business
entity receiving a request is searched for, and when the period
of time during which the interchange allows for a demand and
supply adjustment is short, interchange that will be accepted
10 with reliability and is likely to succeed in demand and supply
adjustment is requested.
[0021]
For example, when electric power demand and supply in an
area is adjusted by requesting business operators such as
15 factories to save power in a CEMS, each factory presents an
electric power usage plan for each operation such as production
to the CEMS. For an electric power shortage at a particular
time point in a target area, the CEMS requests a reduction in
the maximum electric power usage in each operation, or a change
20 in the start/finish time point of an operation, or a change in
the electric power usage peak time zone, to aim to solve the
electric power shortage. A business operator receiving the
request determines acceptance/refusal of the request,
considering whether the content of the request is feasible and
25 a possible effect on the entire operation, and responds to the
14
CEMS. Based on the response from the business operator, the
CEMS updates the acceptance probability of the interchange method
requested among a reduction in the maximum electric power usage,
a change in the start/finish time point of an operation, and
a change in the electric power usage peak time zone 5 that are
the interchange methods, and increases the corresponding
certainty factor. Depending on the period of time until a change
from an electric power demand and supply adjustment by
cooperation between the business entities in the area to another
10 demand and supply adjustment method such as an interchange
request to another area, a supply request to a higher electric
power system, or an emergency measure such as a planned blackout,
when the period is long, an interchange method with a low certainty
factor is requested, and when the period is short, an interchange
15 method with a high acceptance probability and a high certainty
factor is requested.
[0022]
To attain the above matters, the present example has the
following configuration. A resource interchange method between
20 a plurality of business entities using a computer includes, when
resources are short, predicting the acceptance probability of
resource interchange of another business entity, selecting a
business entity to be a request destination of resource
interchange and an interchange method from the level of the
25 acceptance probability and the level of prediction accuracy,
15
and the business entity of the resource interchange request
destination evaluating the feasibility of the interchange method
and an effect of the interchange on an operation, determining
whether the interchange request can be implemented or not, giving
a response about whether the implementation is possible or 5 not
to the requestor, and each business entity changing either or
both of a resource usage plan and a resource supply plan thereof
in accordance with the request content and the response.
[0023]
10 Further, the method of predicting the acceptance
probability includes means for sharing a resource usage and
supply plan among the plurality of business operators, means
for estimating the acceptance probability of change in the usage
and supply plan, means for calculating the certainty factor of
15 the estimation of the probability, means for creating a method
of changing the usage and supply plan that allows for reception
of supply of necessary resources from the usage and supply plan
when resource demand and supply is imbalanced, means for
acquiring a time limit for determining the success or failure
20 of resource imbalance solution, means for issuing a request for
an interchange method with a low certainty factor depending on
the acceptance probability of change in the usage and supply
plan, the certainty factor of the probability estimation, and
the length of the time limit, and means for issuing a request
25 for an interchange method with a high change acceptance
16
probability and a high certainty factor depending on the
acceptance probability of change in the usage and supply plan,
the certainty factor of the probability estimation, and the
length of the time limit.
5 [0024]

Next, the present example will be described in detail.
Fig. 1 is a hardware configuration diagram in the present
invention. It includes a business operator A system 137 that
10 is a system group owned by a business operator A, and a business
operator B system 101 of a system group owned by a business operator
B, which are coupled via a wide area communication network 156.
Here, in Fig. 1, the configuration includes two business
operators’ systems, the business operator A system 137 and the
15 business operator B system 101, but may include a larger number
of business operators’ systems.
[0025]
The business operator A system 137 is a collection of
systems owned by the business operator A and performing usage
20 and supply of an infrastructure service such as electric power
supply and usage, and includes a service management server 142,
a cooperation management server 168, monitoring control servers
140 and 141, controllers 138 and 139, and electric power equipment
157, 158 and 159.
25 [0026]
17
The service management server 142 is a computer for
monitoring excess and deficiency of resources in the
infrastructure service, and making and transmitting a control
plan for the lower monitoring control servers 140 and 141. The
service management server 142 includes a CPU 145, 5 a secondary
storage 147, a primary storage 146, an input-output apparatus
144, and a communication apparatus 143. Programs for a resource
interchange method are stored in the primary storage 146 and
the secondary storage 147, and executed at the CPU 147.
10 [0027]
The service management server 142 cooperates with the
cooperation management server 168 and the monitoring control
servers 140 and 141 via the communication apparatus 143. The
input-output apparatus 170 is an apparatus for an operator to
15 control the service management server 142, check execution
results, and update the programs, and may be a user interface
apparatus such as a keyboard, a mouse, and/or a touch panel,
or may be a data input-output apparatus such as a CD drive.
[0028]
20 The cooperation management server 168 is a computer for
creating a request for resource interchange in the infrastructure
service with the business operator B system 101, and predicting
behavior of other business operators including the business
operator B. This server is used at the request receiving end.
25 In this case, an operation shown in Fig. 4 is executed.
18
[0029]
The cooperation management server 168 includes a CPU 171,
a secondary storage 173, a primary storage 172, an input-output
apparatus 170, and a communication apparatus 169. Programs for
a resource interchange method are stored in the primary 5 storage
172 and the secondary storage 173, and executed at the CPU 171.
The cooperation management server 168 cooperates with the service
management server 142 via the communication apparatus 169, and
with the business operator B system 101 via the wide area
10 communication network 156. The input-output apparatus 170 is
an apparatus for an operator to control the cooperation
management server 168, check execution results, and update the
programs, and may be a user interface apparatus such as a keyboard,
a mouse, and/or a touch panel, or may be a data input-output
15 apparatus such as a CD drive.
[0030]
The monitoring control servers 140 and 141 are computers
for cooperating with the controllers 138 and 139 and performing
monitoring control on the infrastructure service, and include
20 a plurality of monitoring control servers corresponding to a
range of targets of monitoring control. Here, a plurality of
monitoring control servers is included. Alternatively, only
a single monitoring control server 141 may be included. The
monitoring control server 141 includes a CPU 150, a secondary
25 storage 152, a primary storage 151, an input-output apparatus
19
149, and a communication apparatus 148. The monitoring control
server 141 executes monitoring control for the controllers 138
and 139 based on a plan from the service management server 142.
Programs for monitoring control are stored in the secondary
storage 152 and the primary storage 151, and executed at th5 e
CPU 150. The communication apparatus 148 cooperates with the
service management server 142 via a LAN, receives monitoring
results of the controllers 138 and 139, and transmits a control
indication. The input-output apparatus 149 is an apparatus for
10 an operator to control the monitoring control server, check
execution results, and update the programs, and may be a user
interface apparatus such as a keyboard, a mouse, and/or a touch
panel, or may be a data input-output apparatus such as a CD drive.
[0031]
15 The controllers 138 and 139 are control apparatuses for
controlling and measuring the electric power equipment 157, 158,
and 159. The controller group includes a plurality of
controllers corresponding to electric power equipment to be
controlled. Here, a plurality of controllers is included, but
20 only the single controller 139 may be included. Alternatively,
without controllers, the monitoring control server 141 may be
configured to directly control the electric power equipment 157,
158, and 159. The controller 139 includes a CPU 154, a primary
storage 153, and a communication apparatus 155, and executes
25 a control program stored in the primary storage 153 at the CPU
20
154. The communication apparatus 155 cooperates with the
monitoring control server 141 via a LAN, and controls electric
power equipment.
[0032]
The electric power equipment 157, 158, and 159 is equip5 ment
for supplying or using an infrastructure service such as electric
power, and may be electric power supply equipment such as a thermal
power generator, a photovoltaic generator, or a storage battery,
or may be electricity transmission and distribution equipment
10 such as a transforming apparatus, a transformer, or a switch,
or may be electric power using equipment such as a production
facility, an air-conditioning apparatus, or a home appliance.
[0033]
The business operator B system 101 and other business
15 operators’ systems also have a hardware configuration similar
to that of the business operator A system 137.
[0034]
Fig. 2 is the configuration of software executed in the
hardware configuration in Fig. 1. In the business operator A
20 system 137, on the service management server 142, planning time
limit management 201, service level management 202, and a
planning operation DB 203 are executed as software. The service
level management 202 manages planning of an operation and the
situation of supply and usage of an infrastructure in the business
25 operator A system 137. For example, when the business operator
21
is a factory, a production operation and a usage plan of
infrastructure service therein are managed. The planning time
limit management 201 calculates a time limit for determining
the start of the operation plan as time constraint to execute
the plan. The operation management DB 203 stores 5 the operation
plan made in the service level management 202, and measurement
results of the controllers 138 and 139, the electric power
equipment 157, 158, and 159, and infrastructure service such
as electric power collected by cooperation with the monitoring
10 control server 141.
On the cooperation management server 168, interchange
request management 204, model estimation 205, and an other
business operator model DB 206 are executed as software. The
interchange request management 204 performs the selection of
15 a resource interchange request destination, creation of request
content, transmission of a request, and reception of a response
with respect to other business operators including the business
operator B. The model estimation 205 estimates the behavior
toward an interchange request of another business operator from
20 information stored in the other business operator model DB 206
so that the estimation is used in the selection of a request
destination and the creation of request content in the
interchange request management 204. The other business
operator model DB 206 stores the results of past interchange
25 requests to other business operators, and stores content
22
estimated by the model estimation 205 as an other business
operator model.
On the monitoring control server 141, monitoring control
207 for monitoring and controlling the controllers 138 and 139,
reporting to the service management server 142, and 5 receiving
and executing a plan from the service management server 142,
and a monitoring control DB 208 for storing the results of
monitoring and controlling of the controllers 138 and 139 by
the monitoring control 207 are included. Other monitoring
10 control servers including the monitoring control server 140 also
have a similar configuration. On the controller 138,
measurement/control 209 for performing measurement of sensor
values and control of actuators of the electrical equipment is
executed.
15 Next, with reference to Figs 3 to 7, details of processes
in the planning time limit management 201, the service level
management 202, the interchange request management 204, and the
model estimation 205 will be mainly described.
[0035]
20 Fig. 3 is an outline of a resource interchange method,
and is a process flow of a requestor to receive resource supply
from another business operator.
[0036]
First, step 301 is a process of detecting a resource
25 shortage, in which the service level management 202 compares
23
a resource usage amount with a usable amount. When the difference
is equal to or lower than a certain value, processes in step
302 and below are executed. Here, the resource usage amount
is a planned amount of electric power usage based on an operation
plan of each business operator. For example, it may be an hourl5 y
electric power usage amount thereof, or may be a totalized planned
electric power usage of the other business operators presented
in advance from the other business operators. The usable amount
may be the maximum electric power usage amount contracted in
10 advance with an electric power operator when it is an electric
power service recipient, or may be a target value of an electric
power usage amount or power saving amount planned by it. When
it is an electric power provider such as an electric power operator,
the usable amount may be the maximum electric power supply amount
15 that is the totalized capacity of generators.
[0037]
Next, step 302 is a process of making a resource shortage
solution plan, in which the service level management 202 makes
an operation plan to solve the resource shortage, and makes a
20 control plan to be transmitted to the monitoring control server
141. Here, the operation plan is an hourly plan on how to operate
electric power supply equipment such as a generator or operate
electric power consuming equipment such as a production facility.
[0038]
25 Step 303 is a process of determining whether the resource
24
shortage can be solved, in which the service level management
202 checks whether the resource shortage can be solved by the
resource shortage solution plan made in step 302. The service
level management 202 calculates a resource usage amount and a
resource supply amount under the resource shortage plan fro5 m
a past history and a monitoring control history stored in the
planning operation DB 203, and analyzes whether the resource
shortage is solved. When the resource shortage solution is
impossible, processes in step 304 and below are performed.
10 [0039]
Step 304 is a process of calculating a time limit for
avoidance. Time at which a resource shortage will occur and
a time limit for starting an avoidance process, which is planned
to prevent failures of the electric power equipment 157, 158,
15 and 159 when a resource shortage occurs and limit effects on
other business operators to the minimum, are calculated. During
time from a current time point to the time limit for the avoidance
process, the interchange request management 204, the model
estimation 205, and the other business operator model DB 206
20 issue a request for resource interchange to another business
operator to try to solve the resource shortage.
[0040]
Next, step 305 is a process of acquiring an interchange
behavioral model of other business operators from the other
25 business operator model DB 206 to issue a resource interchange
25
request to another business operator. The interchange
behavioral model is information to predict whether a request
is accepted when resource interchange such as a reduction in
the electric power usage amount or an increase in the electric
5 power supply amount is requested, and includes a resource
interchange amount, an acceptance probability of a request, and
a certainty factor indicating the prediction accuracy of the
acceptance probability which are obtained with respect to at
least one electric power interchange method. The resource
10 interchange behavioral model is set for each interchange method.
Thus, first, using an interchange method list shown in Fig. 13,
an interchange method is specified, and a resource interchange
behavioral model is extracted based on the specified interchange
method.
15 [0041]
Step 306 is a process of making an interchange plan that
can solve a resource shortage at the model estimation 205. Based
on the interchange behavioral model acquired in step 305, a
resource interchange plan for another business operator to solve
20 the resource shortage is made. From the resource interchange
amount included in the resource interchange behavioral model,
on the precondition that other business operators accept all
requests, a request issue destination capable of solving the
resource shortage, and a resource interchange method to be
25 requested are extracted.
26
[0042]
Step 309 is a process at the model estimation 205 and the
interchange request management 204 of selecting a request
destination and an interchange method from the acceptance
probability and the prediction accuracy. In accordance 5 with
the acceptance probability and the certainty factor included
in the interchange behavioral model, at least one business
operator of a request destination and resource interchange method
are selected. Step 310 and step 311 are processes at the
10 interchange request management 204 of issuing a request to the
request destination business operator and receiving information
on whether the interchange is possible or not as a response to
the request from the request destination business operator.
[0043]
15 The processes in steps 309, 310, and 311 are repeated until
the time limit calculated in step 304 is reached (step 307) or
until the resource shortage becomes possible (step 308).
[0044]
In step 312, at the model estimation 205, the interchange
20 behavioral model is updated from the content of the interchange
request in steps 309 and 310 and the content of the response
in step 311, and stored in the other business operator model
DB 206.
[0045]
25 Fig. 4 is an outline of a resource interchange method,
27
and is a process flow at a request destination receiving a resource
interchange request from another business operator.
[0046]
First, step 401 is a process of receiving a resource
(electric power) interchange 5 request, and is a process of
receiving a resource interchange request issued in step 310.
Step 402 is a process of making an interchange plan, in which
a change in the operation plan for implementing requested
interchange of resources such as electric power, and a change
10 in the control plan to be transmitted to the monitoring control
server 140 to implement the operation plan change are planned.
[0047]
Step 403 is a process of analyzing an effect on its operation,
and is a process of analyzing an effect on an operation caused
15 by the resource interchange at the service level management 202.
For example, when the resource interchange is implemented by
operating a private generator, an increase in costs due to fuel
costs is analyzed. When the resource interchange is implemented
by power saving through stopping electric power using equipment
20 such as a production facility, it is analyzed to what extent
a failure to achieve an operation objective such as the volume
of production occurs.
[0048]
Step 404 is a process of calculating a time limit for
25 starting an interchange plan, in which the planning time limit
28
management 201 calculates a time limit for starting an operation
plan change and a control plan change to implement the resource
interchange.
[0049]
Step 405 is a process of determining whether 5 interchange
is possible or not, in which the interchange request management
201 determines whether interchange is possible or not from an
effect on an operation analyzed in step 403 and a start time
limit calculated in step 404. For example, when the start time
10 limit has passed or when a time period until the start time limit
is shorter than a certain value, the interchange cannot be
implemented. When the effect on the operation is great, it is
determined that interchange should not be implemented.
[0050]
15 Step 406 is a process of transmitting a response, in which
the interchange request management 201 transmits information
on whether the interchange is possible or not determined in step
405 to the request-originating business operator. The response
is received in step 311. When information on whether the
20 interchange is possible or not determined in step 405 is
acceptance, in order to implement the interchange plan made in
step 402, the control plan change is transmitted to the monitoring
control server 140 to implement resource interchange for the
request.
25 [0051]
29
Fig. 5 is a process flow showing a method of selecting
a resource interchange request destination and an interchange
method, a detailed flow of the process in step 309. Step 501
is a process of acquiring an acceptance probability and a
certainty factor from a resource interchange 5 behavioral model,
in which a resource interchange behavioral model associated with
an interchange method extracted as an interchange method in a
resource interchange plan made in step 306 of a business operator
extracted as a request destination in the resource interchange
10 plan is extracted, and the acceptance probability and the
certainty factor thereof are acquired.
[0052]
Step 502 is a process of determining whether time until
the time limit is longer than a certain value, in which time
15 until the time limit for the avoidance process acquired in step
304 is compared with a predetermined threshold, and the
difference is calculated.
[0053]
Step 503 is a process when the time until the time limit
20 calculated in step 502 is longer than the threshold, and is a
process of selecting an interchange method with a low certainty
factor from the interchange behavioral model. When time until
the time limit is long, an interchange method with a low certainty
factor is selected in the interchange behavioral model acquired
25 in step 501. Here, in a method of selecting an interchange method
30
with a low certainty factor, only one interchange method with
the lowest certainty factor in the acquired interchange
behavioral model may be selected, or the acquired interchange
methods may be ranked in ascending order of certainty factors
to select a plurality of interchange methods in descending 5 ding order
of the rankings until a required amount of resource interchange
is reached. The method may be any method in which an interchange
method with a low certainty factor is preferentially selected.
Step 504 is a process of determining whether time until the time
10 limit is shorter than a certain value, in which time until the
time limit for the avoidance process acquired in step 304 is
compared with a predetermined threshold to calculate the
difference.
[0054]
15 Step 505 is a process when the time until the time limit
calculated in step 504 is shorter than the threshold, and is
a process of selecting an interchange method with a high certainty
factor and acceptance probability. When time until the time
limit is long, a method with a high certainty factor and acceptance
20 probability is selected in the interchange behavioral model
acquired in step 501. Here, in a method of selecting an
interchange method, interchange methods with certainty factors
equal to or more than a certain value may be extracted in the
acquired interchange behavioral model, expected interchange
25 amounts may be calculated from the acceptance probabilities and
31
the interchange amounts by the resource interchange methods,
and an interchange method that is expected to provide interchange
corresponding to a required amount of resource interchange or
equal to or larger than the resource interchange amount may be
selected from among them. Alternatively, with 5 the certainty
factors considered as indicating correct probabilities of
predictions of the acceptance probabilities, the amounts
resulting from multiplying the certainty factors and the
acceptance probabilities together may be considered as resource
10 interchange execution probabilities to calculate the expected
interchange amounts. The method may be any method in which an
interchange method with a high certainty factor and acceptance
probability is preferentially selected.
[0055]
15 Fig. 6 is a process flow diagram illustrating a method
of estimating a resource interchange behavioral model, and is
a detailed process flow of the interchange behavioral model
update in step 312.
[0056]
20 Step 601 is a process of acquiring request content and
response content, in which information on a business operator
selected as a request destination and an interchange method
requested in steps 309 and 310, and information on which behavior
of acceptance and refusal the request-receiving business
25 operator has taken to the request content received in step 311
32
are acquired.
[0057]
When the response of the request-receiving business
operator is acceptance (step 602), step 603 is a process of
5 increasing the acceptance probability, and is a process of
calculating the acceptance probability corresponding to the
requested interchange method for the business operator selected
as the request destination. In a method of calculating the
acceptance probability, the acceptance probability may be
10 increased by a predetermined value, and when the acceptance
probability exceeds 1.0, the acceptance probability may be set
at 1.0, or a past request history may be held in the other business
operator model DB 206 and the number of acceptances may be divided
by the number of previous requests to calculate the probability
15 from the request history. The method may be any method in which
the acceptance probability increases due to a large number of
acceptance responses.
[0058]
When the response of the requested business operator is
20 acceptance (step 604), step 604 is a process of decreasing the
acceptance probability corresponding to the interchange content
of the request destination, and is a process of calculating the
acceptance probability corresponding to the requested
interchange method for the business operator selected as the
25 request destination. In a method of calculating the acceptance
33
probability, the acceptance probability may be decreased by a
predetermined value, and when the acceptance probability falls
below 0.0, the acceptance probability may be set at 0.0, or a
past request history may be held in the other business operator
model DB 206 and the number of acceptances may be 5 divided by
the number of the previous requests to calculate the probability
from the request history. The method may be any method in which
the acceptance probability decreases due to a small number of
acceptance responses.
10 [0059]
Next, step 605 is a process of increasing the certainty
factor corresponding to the interchange content of the request
destination, in which the corresponding certainty factor is
increased irrespective of the content of the response. Step
15 606 is a process of decreasing certainty factors other than that
of the interchange method of the request destination, in which
the certainty factors of interchange methods of request
destinations to which a request has not been issued are decreased.
In a method of increasing or decreasing the certainty factor,
20 for example, the certainty factor may be increased or decreased
by a predetermined certain small value. The method may be any
method in which the certainty factor of an interchange method
for which requests have been issued frequently, or an interchange
method to which the latest request has been issued at the date
25 and time that is shorter from a current time point can be calculated
34
to be higher, and the certainty factor of an interchange method
for which requests have been issued infrequently, or an
interchange method to which the latest request has been issued
at the date and time that is further from a current time point
can be calculated 5 to be lower.
[0060]
Fig. 8 is an example of a table showing an electric power
usage plan according to a resource interchange method. The
business operators share the electric power usage plan shown
10 in Fig. 8 therebetween, and store it in the other business operator
model DB 206 to implement the resource interchange method.
[0061]
Column 801 “contractor name” is the name of a business
operator, showing business operators who make and execute the
15 plan. Column 802 “operation type” is an attribute of the electric
power usage plan, showing types of operations using electric
power such as a production operation and an office operation.
Column 803 “time point” shows a time point at which electric
power is used. Column 804 “power usage amount” shows the amount
20 of electric power used at the electric power usage time point.
Hourly electric power usage amounts in Fig. 8 are presented and
shared between the business operators.
[0062]
Row 806 shows that the planned power usage that the business
25 operator “Hitachi sales office” executes in the “normal office
35
operation” at “2011/11/11 0:00-1:00” is “10.”
[0063]
Fig. 9 is an example of a table showing an interchange
behavioral model according to the resource interchange method.
Each business operator predicts the probability of change 5 in
the electric power usage plan based on the electric power usage
plan shared in Fig. 8 to provide the interchange behavioral model.
[0064]
Column 901 “contractor name” is the name of a business
10 operator similar to that in column 801. Column 902 “operation
type” is the type of an operation in which electric power is
used similar to that of column 802.
[0065]
Column 903 “start time point” is a time point to start
15 electric power usage in the same operation type of the same
contractor in the electric power usage plan. Column 904 “change
probability” is a predicted value of the probability of
acceptance when a request for changing the start time point such
as moving it forward or back has been made. Column 905 “certainty
20 factor” is a value showing the certainty of the predicted value
in the change probability of the start time point.
[0066]
Column 906 “finish time point” is a time point to finish
electric power usage in the same operation type of the same
25 contractor in the electric power usage plan. Column 907 “change
36
probability” is a predicted value of the probability of
acceptance when a request for changing the finish time point
such as moving it forward or back has been made. Column 908
“certainty factor” is a value showing the certainty of the
predicted value in the change probability of the finish 5 time
point.
[0067]
Column 909 “peak time point” is a time point at which the
electric power usage amount is planned to be the maximum in the
10 electric power usage plan. Column 910 “change probability” and
column 911 “certainty factor” are a predicted value of the
acceptance probability of a request for changing the peak time
point, and a value showing certainty thereof.
[0068]
15 Column 912 “peak usage amount” is the maximum electric
power usage amount in the electric power usage plan. Column
913 “change probability” and column 914 “certainty factor” are
a predicted value of the acceptance probability and a value
showing certainty thereof when a decrease or an increase in the
20 peak usage amount is requested.
[0069]
In Fig. 9, the acceptance probability and the certainty
factor are treated as the same things without distinguishing
between increase and decrease in each planned value and without
25 distinguishing amounts of change. Alternatively, the
37
acceptance probability and the certainty factor may be treated
as different values according to the direction of change such
as increase or decrease, or may be treated as a probability
distribution function in which the acceptance probability has
a value corresponding to a 5 requested amount of change.
[0070]
In Figs. 8 and 9, the amount of electric power usage is
held in the planning and interchange behavioral model. When
a business operator having power supply equipment such as a
10 generator or a storage battery is included, the amount of electric
power supply may be held in the planning and interchange
behavioral model.
[0071]
Fig. 7 is a process flow of acquiring a time limit for
15 resource interchange, and is a detailed flow of the process in
step 304.
[0072]
First, step 701 is a process of predicting a time point
of a failure occurrence due to a resource shortage, in which
20 a resource usage plan is compared with a resource supply plan
in an infrastructure service such as electric power supply and
usage, and a time point at which the usage amount will exceed
the supply amount or a predetermined amount of a margin that
is a difference between the usage amount and the supply amount
25 will fall below, and a failure will occur, is predicted. In
38
electric power supply and usage, an operation plan and an electric
power usage plan shared in advance between business operators
are compared with an electric power supply plan shared from an
electric power operator and a business operator having power
generating equipment, and a time point at which the excess 5 supply
capacity will fall below a certain value, the supply voltage
and frequency will not be able to be maintained, and a blackout
is expected to occur, is calculated.
[0073]
10 Next, step 702 is a process of predicting response time
due to a resource interchange request, in which time required
to receive a response when a request is issued to another business
operator is predicted from a past request history. In a
prediction method, a past request history may be held in the
15 other business operator model DB 206, and a predicted value may
be an average value of differences between request time points
and response time points of each business operator, or a predicted
value may be an average value of differences between the request
time points and response time points of all the business operators.
20 The method may be any method in which time to receive a response
to a request is predicted.
[0074]
Step 703 is a process of acquiring a failure avoidance
process and processing time, in which processing time for the
25 avoidance process planned in step 304 is acquired. Time required
39
to execute the avoidance process is calculated from a past history
and a set value at a design time point. In the case where electric
power equipment is stopped in preparation for a blackout in the
avoidance process, the processing time may be the maximum time
required to stop each piece of electrical 5 ical equipment without
causing failures. In the case where a notification of occurrence
of a blackout is provided to surrounding business operators in
the avoidance process, the processing time may be time expected
to be required for the business operators to recognize the
10 notification and prepare for the blackout.
[0075]
Finally, step 704 is a process of calculating a final time
point to issue a request, in which a final time point to issue
a resource interchange request to another business operator is
15 calculated from the time of response to the resource interchange
request, the processing time of the avoidance process, and the
failure occurrence predicted time point. In a calculation
method, a time point ahead of the failure occurrence predicted
time point by the processing time of the avoidance process is
20 calculated as an avoidance process start time limit, and a time
point ahead of the avoidance process start time limit by the
time of response to the resource interchange request is
calculated as a final time point to issue a resource interchange
request. Here, in the calculation method, calculation is made
25 by counting backward from the failure occurrence predicted time
40
point. Alternatively, a past request history may be held in
the other business operator model DB 206, and from an average
resolution time between issuance of a first request and
determination of an interchange method, the final time point
to issue the resource interchange request may be 5 calculated.
The method may be any method in which a time point after which
a request to another business operator does not lead to effective
resource interchange is calculated.
[0076]
10 In this example and in Fig. 10, it is a precondition that
a plurality of business operators behave autonomously and
dispersedly and perform electric power interchange with each
other. Alternatively, as shown in Fig. 11, an electric power
operator 1102 may be configured to centrally perform an electric
15 power interchange method, and issue an electric power interchange
request to business operators 1103, 1104, and 1105 that are
present in an area 1101 and share an electric power infrastructure
1110 such as electricity distribution lines to solve an electric
power shortage in the area.
20 [0077]
According to the resource interchange method in this
example, when a normal operation plan or an equipment usage plan
is changed or when the plan is changed by a request to implement
electric power interchange, the probability of change in the
25 plan can be predicted from a past history and a response from
41
another business operator obtained in the process of negotiation
of a request to predict an interchange behavior of the other
business operator to a high degree. This allows for
implementation of high-precision power interchange.
5 [0078]
Example 2
Next, another embodiment will be briefly described.
[0079]
In this embodiment, between a plurality of transportation
10 operators that supply transportation service such as railways
and buses, when objects to be transported such as passengers
or freight increase more than planned, resulting in a shortage
of transportation capacity, or when an emergency such as a failure
of transportation equipment causes a reduction in transportation
15 capacity, the plurality of transportation operators interchange
transportation capacity therebetween to solve the
transportation capacity shortage.
[0080]
Fig. 12 is a conceptual diagram illustrating
20 transportation capacity interchange as an example of another
embodiment. A plurality of railway operators 1202 and 1203 and
a bus operator 1204 provide passenger service in the same area
between the same locations. When a trouble occurs in a section
between an A station 1205 and a B station 1206 served by a business
25 operator (1202) that provides passenger service therein, and
42
the passenger service cannot be provided, a request for
transportation capacity interchange by passenger
transportation by a detour or by an increase in bus services
is made via a communication channel 1211 to the railway operator
1203 or the bus operator 1204 that can provide passenger 5 service
in the same section, to try to solve the shortage in transportation
capacity and maintain the passenger service level. At that time,
the railway operator 1202, a requestor, predicts the
transportation capacity of the other business operators 1203
10 and 1204 and their behavior toward the request, and issues a
request preferentially to a business operator with a high
probability of accepting the request to speedily receive the
supply of transportation capacity.
[0081]
15 This method of interchange request can be implemented by
a method similar to the resource interchange method shown in
Figs. 3 to 7. For example, for an increase in the number of
passengers expected in advance such as by the holding of an event,
a sufficiently long period of negotiation can be taken, so that
20 a transportation capacity interchange method with a low certainty
factor is requested to calculate the acceptance probability of
another business operator. In an emergency such as an accident
in which a sufficient period of negotiation cannot be taken,
a request is made to a transportation operator with a high
25 certainty factor and acceptance probability to securely receive
43
the supply of transportation capacity.
[Reference Signs List]
[0082]
137 Business operator A system
101 Business 5 operator B system
142 Service management server
168 Cooperation management server
140 Monitoring control server
141 Monitoring control server
10 139 Controller
156 Wide area communication channel
157 Electric power equipment
203 Operation management DB
206 Other business operator model DB
15 208 Monitoring control DB
44
We claim:
[Claim 1]
A resource interchange method for interchanging resources
between a plurality of business entities, the method comprising:
a database storing behavioral model information that 5 t is
information on a predicted timing and amount of resource usage
by another business operator,
the method comprising the steps of:
detecting a shortage of resources;
10 acquiring the behavioral model information from the database
when the result of the detection shows a shortage of resources;
specifying a business entity to perform resource interchange
to solve the detected resource shortage, based on the acquired
behavioral model; and
15 by the specified business entity, implementing resource
interchange.
[Claim 2]
The resource interchange method according to claim 1, further
20 comprising the step of:
calculating a time limit for avoiding the detected resource
shortage,
wherein the specifying step comprises specifying the
business entity based on the calculated time limit and a current
25 time point.
45
[Claim 3]
The resource interchange method according to claim 2,
wherein the behavioral model information further comprises
certainty information showing the certainty of the behavioral
model information, 5 and
wherein the specifying step comprises specifying a business
entity with low certainty information as an other party when
time until the time limit is longer than a predetermined length.
10 [Claim 4]
The resource interchange method according to claim 2 or 3,
wherein the time limit calculating step comprises
calculation based on a time point at which the resource shortage
will occur and a response time when a request for resource
15 interchange is made to the other business entity.
[Claim 5]
The resource interchange method according to claim 4,
wherein the resources are an amount of electric power or
20 a capacity of transportation in transportation facilities.
[Claim 6]
A resource interchange server for managing resource
interchange between a plurality of business entities, the server
25 being installed in each of the plurality of business entities,
46
the server comprising:
a database configured to store behavioral model
information that is information on a predicted timing and amount
of resource usage by another business entity;
a detection apparatus configured to detect a shortage 5 e of
resources;
a cooperation management apparatus configured to acquire
the behavioral model information from the database when the
result of the detection shows a shortage of resources, specify
10 a business entity to perform resource interchange to solve the
detected resource shortage, based on the acquired behavioral
model, and transmit resource interchange request information
to the resource interchange server of the specified business
entity.
15
[Claim 7]
The resource interchange server according to claim 6,
wherein the cooperation management apparatus is
configured to calculate a time limit for avoiding the detected
20 resource shortage, and specify the business entity based on the
calculated time limit and a current time point.
[Claim 8]
The resource interchange server according to claim 7,
25 wherein the behavioral model information further comprises
47
certainty information showing the certainty of the behavioral
model information, and
wherein the cooperation management apparatus is configured
to specify a business entity with low certainty information as
an other party in interchange when time until the time 5 ime limit
is longer than a predetermined length.
[Claim 9]
The resource interchange server according to claim 7 or
10 8,
wherein the cooperation management apparatus is configured
to perform the calculation based on a time point at which the
resource shortage will occur and a response time when a request
for resource interchange is made to the other business entity.
15
[Claim 10]
A method for interchanging resources between a plurality
of business entities using a computer, the method comprising
the steps of:
20 predicting the acceptance probability of resource
interchange by another business entity in an event of a resource
shortage;
selecting a business entity to be a destination of a resource
interchange request and an interchange method from the level
25 of the acceptance probability and the level of prediction
48
accuracy;
by the computer of the business entity that is the destination
of the resource interchange request, evaluating feasibility of
the interchange method and an effect of the interchange on an
operation, and determining whether the interchange request 5 can
be executed or not;
giving a response about whether the execution is possible
or not to a requestor; and
by each business entity, changing either or both of a resource
10 usage plan and a resource supply plan thereof in accordance with
the request content and the response.
[Claim 11]
The resource interchange method according to claim 10,
15 wherein the acceptance probability predicting step
comprises means for sharing a resource usage and supply plan
between the plurality of business operators, and estimating the
acceptance probability of a change in the usage and supply plan,
the method further comprising the steps of:
20 calculating a certainty factor of the estimation of the
probability;
creating a method of changing the usage and supply plan that
allows for reception of necessary resource supply from the usage
and supply plan when resource demand and supply is imbalanced;
25 acquiring a time limit for determining success or failure
49
of resource imbalance solution;
issuing a request for an interchange method with a low
certainty factor, depending on the acceptance probability of
the change in the usage and supply plan, the certainty factor
of the probability estimation, and the length of the time 5 me limit;
and
issuing a request for an interchange method with a high change
acceptance probability and certainty factor, depending on the
acceptance probability of the change in the usage and supply
10 plan, the certainty factor of the probability estimation, and
the length of the time limit.
[Claim 12]
The resource interchange method according to claim 11,
15 wherein means for calculating the certainty factor of the
estimation of the probability comprises:
sharing a resource usage plan including at least an hourly
amount of usage of resources and a resource supply plan including
at least an hourly amount of supply of resources between business
20 operators;
collecting the acceptance probability of a request for a
change in the resource usage amount or supply amount in the
resource usage plan and the resource supply plan; and
calculating certainty of the acceptance probability using
25 at least one of issue frequency and a length of time after the
50
latest issue time of the change request.
[Claim 13]
The resource interchange method according to claim 12,
wherein the step of acquiring a time limit comprises5 :
acquiring a time point at which solution of the resource
imbalance will become necessary;
predicting a response time to a request for resource
interchange;
10 acquiring a processing time for another method for avoiding
resource imbalance when the resource interchange has failed;
and
calculating a final time limit for issuing a request for
avoiding resource imbalance by resource interchange from a time
15 point at which the avoidance will become necessary, the response
time, and the processing time for the other avoidance method.
[Claim 14]
The resource interchange method according to claim 13,
20 wherein
the step of issuing a request comprises:
acquiring a time point at which solution of the resource
imbalance will become necessary;
predicting a response time to a request for resource
25 interchange;
51
acquiring a processing time for another method for avoiding
resource imbalance when the resource interchange has failed;
and
calculating a final time limit for issuing a request for
avoiding resource imbalance by resource interchange from 5 om a time
point at which the avoidance will become necessary, the response
time, and the processing time for the other avoidance method.
[Claim 15]
10 A method for interchanging transportation capacity between
transportation operators using a computer, the method
comprising:
predicting the acceptance probability of a transportation
capacity increase request to another transportation operator
15 when demand and supply of transportation capacity is tight;
selecting a transportation operator to be a request
destination of the transportation capacity increase request and
a request method from the level of the acceptance probability
and the level of prediction accuracy;
20 by the transportation operator that is the request
destination of the transportation capacity increase request,
evaluating feasibility of the transportation capacity increase
and an effect of the transportation capacity increase on another
transportation operation of the transportation operator, and
25 determining whether the transportation capacity increase is
52
possible or not;
giving a response about the determination to a requestor;
and
by each transportation operator, changing a transportation
equipment usage plan thereof in accordance with the 5 request
content and the response.
[Claim 16]
A method for interchanging electric power between electric
10 power operators, or between an electric power operator and an
electric power consumer, or between electric power consumers,
using a computer, the method comprising:
predicting the acceptance probability of a request for an
electric power supply increase to another electric power operator,
15 or for an electric power usage reduction to a consumer, when
a difference between an electric power usage amount and an
electric power supply amount or a contracted amount of electric
power is equal to or lower than a certain value;
selecting an electric power operator or a consumer to be
20 a request destination of a request for the electric power supply
increase or the usage reduction, and a request method from the
level of the acceptance probability and a level of prediction
accuracy;
by the request destination electric power operator,
25 evaluating feasibility of the supply increase and an effect of
53
the supply increase on the electric power operation, and
determining whether the electric power supply increase is
possible or not;
by the request destination consumer, evaluating feasibility
of the consumption reduction and an effect of the c5 onsumption
reduction, and determining whether the electric power
consumption reduction is possible or not;
giving a response about the determination to a requestor;
and
10 by each electric power operator and consumer, changing a
usage plan of electric power shared equipment and electric power
using equipment thereof in accordance with the request content
and the response.