FIELD OF INVENTION
The present invention generally relates to power generation from renewable sources. More specifically, the present invention is related to a method of forecasting power to be generated using a renewable power source.

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION
[0002] In recent years, renewable energy sources, such as solar energy and hydroelectric energy, have greatly replaced the non-renewable energy sources. In today’s era, promotion of the use of solar energy has shown emerging global trends and the solar industry has become one of the world's prominent industry for power generation. Development and utilization of clean, safe, and environment friendly solar energy has become a common choice for mitigation of several environmental issues, of which air pollution is primary. However, solar power grids are associated with a major drawback of generating variable power due to variability in weather conditions.
[0003] To meet electrical power demand of consumers, government electricity distribution companies are required to plan power generation. A deficit in power arises while the power demands of consumers is greater than power provided by private power generating agencies to the government electricity distribution companies. This government electricity distribution companies cover this power deficit by generating power themselves. So that the government electricity distribution companies can better plan to cover the power deficit, the private power generating agencies are under a mandate to timely notify the government electricity distribution companies of the amount of power they will provide. Governments across countries penalize the private power generating agencies in case they do not timely update the government electricity distribution companies about the extra or less power that they will deliver in a coming time. A penalty imposed is calculated differently for every state and also depends on whether the power is used for intrastate purpose or interstate purpose. For such reason, the private power generating agencies such as solar power producers need to predict amount of solar power they will generate in an upcoming time.
[0004] Efforts have been made in the past to forecast power generation, especially solar power generation. However, techniques developed till date use non-consistent weather forecast data provided by weather data regulators/aggregators to predict future solar power supply.
[0005] Thus, there is a need for a technique using which future power generation can be accurately and time determined, and therefore penalties imposed by government could be avoided.

OBJECTS OF THE INVENTION
[0006] A general objective of the invention is to accurately determine an amount of power that will be generated in a future time frame.
[0007] Another objective of the invention is to schedule power generation to meet requisite power demand.
[0008] Yet another objective of the invention is to curb penalization incurred on private power generating agencies upon providing lesser power than what is promised.
[0009] Yet another objective of the invention is to utilize weather forecast data and historical weather data to accurately determine an amount of power that will be generated.

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION
[00010] This summary is provided to introduce aspects related to systems and methods for determining an amount of power to be generated by a renewable power source, and the aspects are further described below in the detailed description. This summary is not intended to identify essential features of the claimed subject matter nor is it intended for use in determining or limiting the scope of the claimed subject matter.
[00011] The present invention relates to systems, apparatus, and method for determining an amount of power to be generated by a renewable power source. The method includes receiving historical weather data stored in a repository. Weather data for a pre-determined time period may be determined by analyzing the historical weather data. The historical weather data may be analyzed using a data model. Finally, the amount of power to be generated by the renewable power source is determined using the weather data and losses that occur during generation of the power.
[00012] In one embodiment, the renewable power source may include solar energy, wind energy, tidal energy, and geo-thermal energy. The historical weather data may comprises solar irradiance and solar module temperature. Deviations between the weather data and actual weather data may be determined, and adjusted weather data may also be determined using the weather data and the deviations. The actual weather data may be received from field sensors. The deviations may be determined in periodic time intervals. An operator may be allowed to override values of the weather data and the amount of power to be generated, for communication to an electricity distribution company.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
[00013] The accompanying drawings constitute a part of the description and are used to provide a further understanding of the present invention.
[00014] FIG. 1 illustrates an exemplary representation of a network architecture of system for determining an amount of power to be generated by a renewable power source, in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention.
[00015] FIG. 2 illustrates an exemplary representation of various functional components of the system for determining an amount of power to be generated by a renewable power source, in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention.
[00016] FIG. 3 illustrates an exemplary illustration of a report generated by the system, in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention.
[00017] FIG. 4 illustrates an exemplary flowchart representation of a method of determining an amount of power to be generated by a renewable power source, in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[00018] The detailed description set forth below in connection with the appended drawings is intended as a description of various embodiments of the present invention and is not intended to represent the only embodiments in which the present invention may be practiced. Each embodiment described in this disclosure is provided merely as an example or illustration of the present invention, and should not necessarily be construed as preferred or advantageous over other embodiments. The detailed description includes specific details for the purpose of providing a thorough understanding of the present invention. However, it will be apparent to those skilled in the art that the present invention may be practiced without these specific details.
[00019] The present invention pertains to an apparatus, system, and method of determining an amount of power to be generated by a renewable power source. More specifically, the present invention envisages to provide a unified platform integrating weather forecast data as well as historical weather data to facilitate generation of power from renewable power sources, such as solar energy. The forecasted data complements power scheduling to meet future demands of power consumption by consumers.
[00020] It must be understood that although the present invention has been explained in terms of generation and scheduling of solar power, the scope of the present invention is not limited to the same whatsoever, and generation and scheduling of any other form of renewable energy, such as but not limited to, tidal energy, wind energy, and geothermal energy are well covered within the scope of the present invention.
[00021] Referring now to FIG. 1, an exemplary representation of network architecture 100 of a system 102 for determining an amount of power to be generated by a renewable power source is explained. The system 100 may be in communication with a user device 104 and field sensors 106, through a communication network 108. The system 102 may be configured to incorporate various analytical and statistical tools to facilitate analysis of weather forecasts of a geographical region.
[00022] In an embodiment, the user device 104 may be any of a mobile device, a laptop, a personal computer, a personal digital assistant (PDA), a network device, and the like. The field sensors 106 may be configured to sense current weather parameters of a location of installation. The field sensors 106 may be installed at a location where the renewable power sources are installed. For example, the field sensors 106 may be installed alongside solar panels.
[00023] In an embodiment, the communication network 108 may utilize one or more communication technologies, for instance, a local intranet, a Personal Area Network (PAN), a Local Area Network (LAN), a Wide Area Network (WAN), a Virtual Private Network (VPN), an Advanced Intelligent Network (AIN) connection, a Synchronous Optical Network (SONET) connection, a digital line connection, Digital Data Service (DDS) connection, DSL (Digital Subscriber Line) connection, an Ethernet connection, an ISDN (Integrated Services Digital Network) line, and a dial-up connection. Further, the communication network 108 may also establish links to any of a variety of wireless networks, including Wireless Application Protocol (WAP), General Packet Radio Service (GPRS), Global System for Mobile Communication (GSM), Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) or Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA), cellular phone networks, Bluetooth radio, or an IEEE 802.11-based radio frequency network. In an embodiment, the communication network 108 may be a Big Data interface that manages workflow of the system 102 and transmits real-time data to and from the user device 104 and the field sensors 106.
[00024] Referring now to FIG. 2, various functional components of the system 102 may be explained. The system 102 may include at least one processor 202, interface(s) 204, and a memory 206. The at least one processor 202 may be implemented as one or more microprocessors, microcomputers, microcontrollers, digital signal processors, central processing units, state machines, logic circuitries, and/or any devices that manipulate signals based on operational instructions. Among other capabilities, the at least one processor 202 may be configured to fetch and execute computer-readable instructions stored in the memory 206.
[00025] The interface(s) 204 may include a variety of software and hardware interfaces, for example, a web interface, Graphical User Interface, Command Line Interface (CLI) and the like. The interface(s) 204 may allow the system 102 to interact with a user directly. Further, the interface(s) 204 may enable the system 102 to communicate with other computing devices, such as web servers and external data servers (not shown). The interface(s) 204 may facilitate multiple communications within a wide variety of networks and protocol types, including wired networks, for example, Local Area Network (LAN), cable, etc., and wireless networks, such as Wireless Local Area Network (WLAN), cellular, or satellite. The interface(s) 204 may include one or more ports for connecting a number of devices to one another or to a server.
[00026] The memory 206 may include any computer-readable medium known in the art including, for example, volatile memory, such as Static Random Access Memory (SRAM) and Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM), and/or non-volatile memory, such as Read Only Memory (ROM), Erasable Programmable (EPROM), flash memories, hard disks, optical disks, and Solid State Drive (SSD). The memory 206 may include modules 208 and data 210.
[00027] The modules 208 present in the memory may be a forecast generation module 212, forecast tuning module 214, power generation module 216, display module 218, and other module(s) 220. The data 210, amongst other things, serves as a repository for storing data processed, received, and generated by the at least one processor 202. The data 210 may also include historical weather data 222 and other data 224.
[00028] In an aspect, the forecast generation module 212 may be configured to acquire and analyze any or a combination of weather forecasts and the historical weather data 222. In an embodiment, the historical weather data 222 may be stored in a proprietary database that may include a log of one or more weather parameters, such as solar irradiance, solar module temperature.
[00029] In an embodiment, the forecast generation module 212 may analyze the historical weather data 222 using a suitable data model, such as a predictive model and a statistical model to determine weather data (also referred as weather forecast data) for a pre-determined time period. Further, K-nearest neighbor computational model may also be utilized to generate the weather forecasts. The weather forecast data may include one or more weather parameters, such as irradiance forecast and solar module temperature forecast.
[00030] Using the weather data, the forecast generation module 212 may determine amount of power to be generated by the renewable power source, such as the solar power. The amount of power to be generated may be determined using the weather data (i.e. the weather forecast data) and losses that occur during generation of the power. The losses may be determined as per system design and module temperatures. Losses occurring due to the module temperatures may be calculated using module temperature forecast and module temperature coefficient.
[00031] In an aspect, the forecast tuning module 214 may compute deviation between the weather forecast data generated by the system 102 and actual data. The actual data may include real-time data pertaining to weather parameters and power generation, and may be obtained from the field sensors 106. For instance, the forecast tuning module 214 may calculate deviation between actual weather irradiance and forecasted weather irradiance, actual module temperature loss and forecasted module temperature loss, and actual system loss and system loss as per design of the solar power plant. Based on said computation of the deviation, the forecast tuning module 214 may generate adjusted forecast data.
[00032] In an aspect, the power generation module 216 may analyze any or a combination of the weather forecast data and the adjusted forecast data to predict and/or determine power that may be generated at the pre-specified time period in future. The power generation module 216 may allow a user to override values of the weather data and the amount of power to be generated. The power generation module 216 may transmit any of the weather forecast data, the adjusted forecast data, and values indicated by the user through overriding, to an electricity distribution company i.e. State Load Dispatch Centre (SLDC).
[00033] In an embodiment, the power generation module 216 may analyze the amount of power determined and the actual power generated on real-time basis. Based on such analysis, the power generation module 216 may determine accuracy and penalty for periodic time intervals, for example, every 15 minute interval. Further, accuracy and penalty reports may also be generated for said analysis. The power generation module 216 may be configured to maintain the deviation between the amount of power determined and the actual power generated, within a pre-defined range, in order to reduce penalty incursions.
[00034] In one embodiment, the display module 218 may utilize one or more display screens to display all data belonging to a pre-set time period, for instance, 2 hours. The system 102 may also display the forecast data and the adjusted forecast data for a desired time interval, for instance, 1 hour. The data provided by the display module 218 could be seen in an exemplary report illustrated by FIG. 3. The report, as illustrated in FIG. 3, provides available capacity of a power plant, actual power generated, amount of power forecasted, absolute error in forecasted amount of power, actual irradiance, forecasted irradiance, actual module temperature loss, forecasted module temperature loss, actual system losses, forecasted system losses, and adjusted values of said parameters. The report may also provide deviation incurred per day in respect of power generation associated therewith along with future hourly forecasts.
[00035] The present invention reduces instances of penalty incursions by enabling automatic and reliable power generation, and maintaining the deviation between forecasted data and actual power data, within a pre-defined range. A cumulative penalty report may also be provided for the pre-set periodic time intervals on one or more display screens.
[00036] FIG. 4 illustrates an exemplary flowchart representation of proposed method 400 of determining an amount of power to be generated by a renewable power source, in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention. The order in which the method 400 is described is not intended to be construed as a limitation, and any number of the described method blocks can be combined in any order to implement the method 400 or alternate methods. Additionally, individual blocks may be deleted from the method 400 without departing from the spirit and scope of the subject matter described herein. Furthermore, the method can be implemented in any suitable hardware, software, firmware, or combination thereof. However, for ease of explanation, in the embodiments described below, the method 400 may be considered to be implemented in the above described system 102.
[00037] At block 402, historical weather data may be received from a repository. In one case, the historical weather data may be stored in a memory 206 of the system 102.
[00038] At block 404, weather data may be determined for a pre-determined time period by analyzing the historical weather data. The weather data may be determined using a suitable data model.
[00039] At block 406, an amount of power to be generated by a renewable power source, such as solar power generated by solar panels, may be determined, using the weather data and losses that occur during generation of the power.
[00040] It would be appreciated that the proposed method/process may be implemented as a hardware module and/or a software module. For example, method 400 can be implemented as application-specific circuitry or as a software module including instructions stored at a memory and executed at a processor in communication with the memory.
[00041] Although implementations for methods and systems for determining an amount of power to be generated by a renewable power source have been described in language specific to structural features and/or methods, it is to be understood that the appended claims are not necessarily limited to the specific features or methods described. Rather, the specific features and methods are disclosed as examples of implementations for determining an amount of power to be generated by a renewable power source.

We Claim:
1. A method of determining an amount of power to be generated by a renewable power source, the method comprising:
receiving historical weather data stored in a repository;
determining weather data for a pre-determined time period by analyzing the historical weather data, using a data model; and
determining the amount of power to be generated by the renewable power source, using the weather data and losses that occur during generation of the power.

2. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the renewable power source is selected from a group consisting of solar energy, wind energy, tidal energy, and geo-thermal energy.

3. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the historical weather data comprises solar irradiance and solar module temperature.

4. The method as claimed in claim 1, further comprising determining deviations between the weather data and actual weather data, and determining adjusted weather data using the weather data and the deviations.

5. The method as claimed in claim 4, wherein the actual weather data is received from field sensors.

6. The method as claimed in claim 4, wherein the deviations are determined in periodic time intervals.

7. The method as claimed in claim 1, further comprising allowing a user to override values of the weather data and the amount of power to be generated, for communication to an electricity distribution company.

8. A system for determining an amount of power to be generated by a renewable power source, the system comprising:
a processor; and
a memory coupled to the processor, wherein the processor executes programmed instruction stored in the memory to:
receive historical weather data stored in a repository;
determine weather data for a pre-determined time period by analyzing the historical weather data, using a data model; and
determine the amount of power to be generated by the renewable power source, using the weather data and losses that occur during generation of the power.

9. The system as claimed in claim 8, wherein the renewable power source is selected from a group consisting of solar energy, wind energy, tidal energy, and geo-thermal energy.

10. The system as claimed in claim 8, wherein the historical weather data comprises solar irradiance and solar module temperature.

11. The system as claimed in claim 8, further comprising determining deviations between the weather data and actual weather data, and determining adjusted weather data using the weather data and the deviations.

12. The system as claimed in claim 11, wherein the actual weather data is received from field sensors.
13. The system as claimed in claim 11, wherein the deviations are determined in periodic time intervals.

14. The system as claimed in claim 8, further comprising allowing a user to override values of the weather data and the amount of power to be generated, for communication to an electricity distribution company.